Could Troy bust the BCS?

The Troy Trojans fared well in 2008.

They won the Sun Belt Conference, losing just one conference game by a single point. They had a chance to upset both Ohio State and LSU on the road. They earned their third bowl berth in school history.

Yet there were also considerable disappointments. The close loss to LSU came after Troy jumped ahead 31-3. And the overtime bowl loss to Southern Miss left a bad taste in the mouth.

Troy went 8-5 last year, but failed to pull off an upset victory. That’s disappointing to a team that has defeated Mississippi State, Oklahoma State and Missouri in recent years.

However, Troy returns one of the most experienced squads in the Sun Belt this season and is the favorite to win the conference. A few extreme optimists believe that the Trojans can even crash the BCS.

Will it happen? Here’s one writer’s guess of what will happen in 2009.

n Sept. 3, at Bowling Green: Here’s a scary game right off the bat. The Falcons of the MAC went 6-6 last season with one of the wins coming against Pitt of the Big East. But here’s an interesting stat: BGSU went 1-4 at home and 5-2 on the road. A new coach will also be leading the Falcons. Go with Troy in a close one. Troy 27, BGSU 24

n Sept. 12, at Florida: Don’t drink the Kool Aid. Troy’s not going to win this one. Florida may be looking ahead, but it doesn’t matter. The Gators will win big. UF 51, Troy 21

n Sept. 19, at UAB: The Blazers won convincingly the last time the two teams played at Movie Gallery Veterans Stadium. That won’t happen again, though. Troy is the better team. Troy 31, UAB 20

n Sept. 26, Troy at Arkansas State: This could be one of the best games this season in the Sun Belt. The Red Wolves have enjoyed success against Troy in Jonesboro. But a Troy defense that has given up a lot of points in the first three games will turn in its best effort of the season. Troy 21, ASU 10

n Oct. 6, vs. Middle Tennessee: MTSU offensive coordinator Tony Franklin returns to where he was coaching before he took the Auburn OC position. This should be a fun one to watch - though it could take four hours with all of the scoring. Eufaula native Jerrel Jernigan will have a big game. Troy 38, MTSU 30

n Oct. 17, at Florida International: This is a trap game for the Trojans. Some football pundits believe FIU is a darkhorse to win the conference.

But Troy has enjoyed success in Miami. Expect more of the same in this game. Troy 28, FIU 17

n Oct 24, vs. North Texas: This game should be a breather for the Trojans. North Texas used to be really good, but that was several years ago. Troy 41, UNT 13

n Oct. 31, vs. Louisiana-Monroe: ULM nipped the Trojans 31-30 last year in Monroe. The players and coaches remember that was the only game separating them from a perfect conference record. This could be a Halloween nightmare for the Warhawks. Troy 35, ULM 14

* Nov. 7, at Western Kentucky: Upset alert. This will be the one Sun Belt game that Troy loses this season. WKU played Troy pretty well the last time the two foes met in the Commonwealth. I’m going with the Hilltoppers in a shocker. WKU 24, Troy 21

* Nov. 14, at Arkansas: Another upset alert? Yep. This will be the Hawgs’ 10th consecutive week with a game. Certainly they’ll be tired. Troy, on the other hand, will be mad after the WKU loss. The Trojans finally win a road game against a good BCS team. Troy 30, Ark 23

* Nov. 21, vs. Florida Atlantic: This game decides the Sun Belt. FAU stunned Troy two years ago, but Troy’s Levi Brown outduels FAU’s Rusty Smith in a battle of good Sun Belt QBs. Troy 38, FAU 34

* Nov. 28, vs. Louisiana-Lafayette: The Trojans clinch the Sun Belt outright and finish the regular season 10-2. That results in a New Orleans Bowl berth against Memphis. Troy 27, ULL 20